Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
