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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the largest turnaround is handed the award. In reality, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest upset.

Yet the latest competition is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime underperformers ascending together. During an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a turbulent and fun year, he's competing with multiple other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a given after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still